Back to revision notes Open full-size SVG Print mind map ST10 · Probability 1 / Probability 2 / Risk Probability, experiments and risk mind map Use your browser’s Print command for A4 landscape, or choose A3 in its paper settings. The SVG remains sharp when enlarged. A text version follows the map.
Read the mind map as text Probability 1 Probability scale: Probabilities from 0 to 1; chance is not certainty.Theoretical models: Counting rule requires equally likely outcomes.Complement: Complement includes every outcome outside the event.Relative frequency: Relative frequency estimates event probability.Probability 2 Expected frequency: Expected count = trials × probability.Long-run behaviour: More trials stabilise estimates without guaranteed convergence steps.Assess possible bias: Persistent discrepancies need investigation, not instant proof.Simulation: Map random outcomes to the intended probabilities.Risk Absolute risk: Risk = events ÷ relevant group total.Relative risk: Relative risk = A risk ÷ reference risk.Risk difference: Absolute difference differs from relative percentage change.Expected groups: Common denominators make risk comparisons clearer.Connections Probability 1 → Probability 2: Theoretical probabilities and relative frequencies determine expectations compared with repeated trials. Probability 2 → Risk: Expected event counts put absolute and relative risks on comparable group denominators. 