ST8 · Time / rates 1 / Time / rates 2 / Time / rates 3 Time series, index numbers and rates mind map
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Time / rates 1
Time-series display: Time on x; separate trend from noise.
Seasonal and cyclic: Seasonal calendar pattern; cycles less fixed.
Four-point moving average: Average successive fours at half-time positions.
Trend interpretation: Smoothing helps show underlying change.
Time / rates 2
Simple index: Base 100; index expresses relative change.
Change between indices: Percentage change uses the earlier denominator.
RPI, CPI and GDP: Check indicator, basket, base and price adjustment.
Rates per population: Standardise counts using the relevant population.
Time / rates 3
Forecasts from rates: Rate-based predictions depend on appropriate populations.
Connections
Time / rates 1 → Time / rates 2: A smoothed time trend and relative indices describe changes from an explicit reference.
Time / rates 2 → Time / rates 3: Population rates and stated time periods provide the basis for expected-count forecasts.
